Quantum Computers Could Break Bitcoin and Banks by 2025-2029

Quantum Computers Could Break Bitcoin and Banks by 2025-2029

I was at the Q2B quantum Computer conference today and there was a talk about NSM-10 and the change of the encryption that underlies global finance and data protection.

In 2024, the US government will start adopting new encryption rules and a phase out of existing encryption. There is a study being released next year that will guide the US government transition and describes the dates when various encryption will be deprecated. Commercial and finance will follow with rules and a plan in 2025. However, commercial and finance will basically adopt what the $100 million government study. Other nations will follow the US plan. It is likely 2035 will be the target for full implementation but once the announcement and plan is set everyone will be on a forced march to the change. This will happen even if quantum computers do not get to the level of decrypting the current standards.

Cryptocurrencies including Bitcoin are not quantum resistant. They also rely on cryptographic algorithms that are vulnerable to quantum computing attacks.

To attack SHA-2 functions with 256-bit states, using Grover’s algorithm, 2593 qubits (error corrected) would be required, according to Richard Preston’s paper.

Arxiv – Applying Grover’s Algorithm to Hash Functions a Software Perspective.

Quantum computers with 4000 error corrected qubits will be able to decrypt RSA 2048. The 2593 error corrected qubits could break crypto wallets and bitcoin.

If the public key is known, an attacker with a quantum computer of about 1500 error correctted qubits can solve it according to researchers at the Centre for Cryptocurrency Research and Engineering of Imperial College London.

Bitcoin and the other vulnerable cryptocurrencies would have to fork to a quantum secure chain.

IBM has a new roadmap that could see thousands of error corrected qubits by 2029. This is with IBMs superconducting quantum computer chips and systems.

QuEra is working with neutral atoms. The startup is implementing quantum error correction with neutral atoms. The neutral atom approach started years after the superconducting approach. Atom Computing also works with neutral atoms and also has over 1080 qubits (not error corrected) working. QuEra and others could have faster development to thousands of error corrected qubits.

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